Tottenham vs. West Brom
Tottenham against West Brom sees a best priced quote on the over 2.5 goals market of 4/6. It is hardly surprising that goals in tonight’s game are expected to be scored, given Tottenham’s expansive style of play in recent months. But how expansive do the teams need to be in order to ensure that there is value in the 4/6? Assuming that taken together both sides convert 12% of their goalscoring chances, this is probably lenient on West Brom’s behalf, there will need to be in excess of 25 attempts at goal throughout the game for the over 2.5 goals bet to be worthwhile. As the goal quote increases to 3.5, the ‘over’ market affords less value than that of the 2.5 goals. Based on the same number of goal chances, 25, and the same efficiency, 12%, a fair price would be 15/8. The best bookmaker price of 13/8 indicates where the ‘firms’ are looking to make their margin on tonight’s game.
Recommended bet: Back under 3.5 goals.
Wigan vs. Sunderland
The goals markets for the Wigan versus Sunderland match appear to be priced up around the expectation there will be around 26 attempts on goal during the contest. This is under the proviso that both teams convert around 10% of their goalscoring chances. There seems to be little conditional bias as the goal quote increases. Meaning that the layers do not believe that the game will open up any more as the number of goals scored increases, indeed a lively contest is expected from the off.
Manchester City vs. Liverpool
Man City and Liverpool receive top-billing on tonight’s fixture list. City have been one of the most efficient teams in the league at converting their goalscoring chances, while Liverpool have been notoriously poor at doing the same. It has to be considered that Liverpool, and particularly Suarez, have adopted a shoot on sight policy and many efforts have been of poor quality. The likes of Bellamy, Gerrard and Maxi have higher conversion rates than the likes of Suarez, Kuyt and Carroll and therefore team selection will determine greatly Liverpool’s game statistics. It also is worth noting that Gerrard’s quality of delivery towards Carroll is a grade above that of some of the team. By including a conversion rate of 13% and an expectation of 21 goal attempts, we arrive at the quoted price of Evens for over 2.5 total goals. Using the same efficiences the price for over 1.5 goals should be 1.28 and yet 1.36 is freely available. The popularity of the over 2.5 goal market has probably compressed the price and clearly the over 1.5 goal quote is of better value.
Recommended bet: Back over 1.5 goals.