Flat

Galway Festival – Monday

29 Jul
July 29, 2013

Bad information worse than no information at all?

The first day’s racing at Galway was typically enthralling as the Ballybrit track hosted a highly competitive card. Unfortunately an old gripe resurfaced. Information available to racing supporters is at best scant and at worse, plainly inaccurate. Later going reports issued from Galway on Monday related to a softening of the surface and officially described as yielding, yielding to soft on the flat course. This information, at the time, was a boon to those attempting to pare down Tote ticket perms. Lines went through good ground horses faster than the time the bookies take to shorten a Weld runner.

Everything seemed to be going to plan, until the running of the feature race over two miles for qualified riders. Noises had been issued about the unlikely running of Domination, a confirmed good ground performer, on account of the ground. Edeymi was readily discounted as another in search of better going along with Redera, his stablemate. So imagine the consternation when on official going of yielding, yielding to soft in places, these three horses fill out the tricast between them. What was worse was the fact that the merits of Mr.S.Clements (5) were fully known to the author in a contest where pilot competency is vital.

In the same vein, it is probably virtually impossible to calculate accurate speed ratings for the meeting since rail alignments are likely to be drastically altered throughout the week and it will be a surprise if any meaningful information will be passed on. It will be worth knowing that the rails are likely to move inwards and that there will be a strong bias towards runners who race prominently on the inside of the track. But as is often the case, the exact state of the underfoot conditions will be a matter of conjecture.

Horseracing Betting : October 6th

05 Oct
October 5, 2012

Horseracing Markets

Back Angels Will Fall (EW) @9-1

Newmarket’s 5 o’clock sees the reappearance of ANGELS WILL FALL in a listed race over 6 furlongs. She competed in arguably a stronger race at Newbury and failed to get any type of run in the latter stages. She travelled well enough over the sharp 5 furlongs and over this trip will have a fraction longer to get herself organised. She has run creditably at a higher level and in this grade is very likely to be competitive.

Back Regal Parade (EW) @12-1

The day’s big handicap at Ascot (3:35) sees the protagonists from the Ayr Gold Cup return to action. CAPTAIN RAMIUS was clearly well handicapped at Ayr and now carries a 6 pounds penalty while the mark of REGAL PARADE remains untouched. The later has very decent place claims off his rating and two years ago he ran close in the group 1 Prix de La Foret on this very weekend. At 6 years of age he was too old even back then!

Lay Cirrus des Aigles @5-4

There are reasons to oppose the market leader in the Prix Dollar (Longchamp 1:00). The fabulous CIRRUS DES AIGLES is always so much better after a recent outing and here he has to contend with a 132 day absence, along with a 6 pounds penalty. MAXIOS made hard work of victory last time out but he may have found the track a little sharp and the softer conditions will bring his stamina into play. HUNTER’S LIGHT would have been the selection had he not already triumphed at this level last time out. He is burdened with an extra 4 pounds but it is no harm to have him running for us.

Haydock / Newmarket : September 29th

29 Sep
September 29, 2012

Horseracing Markets

Back Elusive Kate @5-2

The Sun Chariot stakes has drawn a competitive field of fillies and mares for this illustrious prize. Elusive Kate deserves to be favourite for this race especially when it is considered that a half length beating in another group 1 was probably her least effective performance of the season so far. Beauty Parlour is clearly a filly of great ability but there is a suspicion that she is a little one paced. With a clear run Up would surely have beaten her in the French 1000 Guineas. In the Prix De Diane there was an absence of acceleration as today’s favourite took up the running before being swamped for speed by Valyra. In contrast it is interesting to note that Elusive Kate has remained racing at a mile especially in light of how many options there are at middle distances for classic fillies.

Back Sendmylovetorose (EW) @14-1

There are plenty of runners in the Cheveley Park stakes field that have been trying to win weak listed races in contrast to the aggressive campaign that Sendmylovetorose has pursued. She is clearly a solid group race runner and a 5 and half lengths beating in a group 1 represents her most disappointing effort so far. She was a blantant non stayer that day and the step up to 7 furlongs against classic bred animals was a big ask. The ground at today’s meeting may represent an obstacle but this is factored into the price. 14-1 is too big a price considering she already holds a verdict over the 9-4 favourite.

Back Elusivity (EW) @12-1

Haydock’s 3:15, the televised 5 furlong handicap sprint, is a tightly knit affair but surely only as competitive as the races that Elusivity has already been contesting this season. It was only partly through last season that this Elusive City gelding was switched to sprinting, something he has shown a decent aptitude for. With his rider’s claim he is effectively 7 pounds better off from when he trailed the winner by just over 3 lengths in the Wokingham Stakes and arguably his pattern race form is even stronger. He has been dropped into a race that he is expected to be competitive in.

Ayr / Newbury : September 22nd

22 Sep
September 22, 2012

Horseracing Markets

Back The Cheka (EW) @16-1

Good prizes are on offer across the many meetings staged this afternoon. The feature race at Ayr, The Ayr Gold Cup has attracted a field worthy of the race’s history. It will virtually take a group race performance to win this race and of the proven pattern class runners The Cheka appeals most. This would be only the second handicap he has contested in his career and this would be a major step down in class for a horse that has fought out the places in group 1 and 2 races this season. His weight is the main factor against him but despite this handicap he can be expected to finish within 3 lengths of the lead at the race’s conclusion. On most occasion’s this type of effort would be good enough for a share of the place prize money. In contrast the favourite, Our Jonathan is without a pattern race victory since his 2 year old season and only receives 4 pounds from the selection.

Back Cameron Highland @11-8

Back Coquet @13-2

Newbury’s Arc trial is unlikely to see any of it’s graduates take a hand in the finish of the main event itself but as a race it is an interesting contest in its own right. Arctic Cosmos has not really progressed from his victory in the St. Leger which remains his sole win on turf. He badly suffers from a lack of acceleration and this small field affair is unlikely to play to his strengths. Lay Time in contrast, has a turn of foot but is much less effective on tracks where the homestraight is 3 furlongs and further in length. Newbury boasts an extended run in which is likely to see her burst of speed peter out. The average distance Black Spirit has been beaten in pattern races run on fast ground is more than 5 lengths so he is not one to back with confidence here. Cameron Highland is justifably favourite and already has shown a great deal of versatility. He clearly sees out the trip and showed a smart turn of pace from the front in winning at Windsor. Coquet is worth a saver on this drop back down in class. She showed smart form in winning at Goodwood whilst not being fully wound up. As a dual listed race winner she is worthy of respect in this company.

Back Mister Music (EW) @8-1

Back Angels Will Fall @12-1

Newbury’s 3:10 sees the consistent Mister Music line up in the 10 furlong handicap. He is rarely more than 3 lengths off the winner of a race below pattern grade and has a chance in a race where group performers are light on the ground. His ability to see out the 10 furlongs is an unknown but over a mile he would be half the price. Later on the same card in the 3:45 Angels Will Fall catches the eye having run with credit in more prestigious races. The key to her chance appears to be that she is a 5 furlongs specialist in contrast to the top weight Tiddliwinks. The later named arguably has the best form on show but much of it has been at a longer trip.

Doncaster / Curragh : September 15th

15 Sep
September 15, 2012

Horseracing Markets

Lay CAMELOT @2-5

The feature race at Doncaster, the St. Leger, run at 3:40 remains one of the highlights of the Autumn flat racing calendar. This year’s renewal is packed full of choicely bred entrants, many of whom have the potential to excel over the extended distance. Racing on Friday was hard going as the ground had become tiring and a stiff headwind blew against the runners in the homestraight. At 2-5 it is preferable to let CAMELOT show he can overcome these difficulties and better this decent field. Stablemates THOUGHT WORTHY and MICHELANGELO are set to ensure that the race is run at a terrific pace and any stamina deficiencies in CAMELOT are sure to be exposed.

Back FIREBEAM (EW) @5-1

The Renaissance stakes run at 4:30 at the Curragh sees a competitive field go to post but consistent group form is thin on the ground. FIREBEAM potentially remains progressive as his pedigree suggests. The way the weights are framed for this race he only finds himself conceding 5 pounds to the 3 year old fillies at the bottom of the card. He has mixed it with very decent company and his experienced rider should be able to get him into a prominent position early on from the gate.

Back DAWN APPROACH @EVENS

The group 1 National stakes at 6:40 sees classic aspirants put their claims to the test. DAWN APPROACH probably has less on his hands than he did when winning the Coventry stakes especially as second favourite, Cristoforo Colombo, is bred to appreciate better ground. The New Approach colt is probably the only member of the field likely to be competitive in next season’s Guineas’ races and it would be surprising if he hasn’t improved since June.

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