Copa del Rey

Cup Football betting : December 12th

12 Dec
December 12, 2012

Swansea vs. Middlesboro

Game Markets

Back Swansea @4-6

Swansea have been highly competitive in the Premier League this season and fully warrant their position in the table based on their play. Their situation compared to that of West Brom’s makes interesting reading. West Brom find themselves 3 points ahead of Swansea yet have scored 2 less goals. Both sides have conceded the same number of goals. What is revealing is that Swansea have both produced and conceded an average of 14 shots at goal per game during their league campaign. In contrast, West Brom have had an average of 12 shots at their opponents’ goal but have had to absorb, on average, 16 efforts per game. In conclusion, Swansea are worthy of at least their position of 8th in the table despite a change in management in the Summer. As a consequence 4-6 about them beating a Championship team in this cup tie is at least fair. Their setback against Norwich on the weekend will serve as a timely reminder that each game has to be taken on its own merits.

Cordoba vs. Barcelona

Game Markets

Back Barcelona ‘MINUS Messi’s goals’ @Evens

Barcelona had to fight hard to see off a determined Betis side on the weekend and this was another reminder to an in-form side that each game starts at 0-0 and that reputation doesn’t give you a goal head start. Barcelona are chalked up as short priced favourites to win this game in the ninety minutes against a lower division side that hasn’t won in 6 games. Messi is the most likely source of goals in this contest but despite his massive contribution to Barcelona’s league campaign, his side would have still won 9 of their 15 encounters if his goals are subtracted from the final scores. Evens is an attractive proposition about Barcelona winning this tie comfortably with an all round team performance.

Copa del Rey Preview : January 18th

18 Jan
January 18, 2012

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona

Injuries and other reasons for unavailability have ironically forced both sides to field strong teams for this cup tie. The match betting suggests a close affair between these fierce rivals and pride will dictate that little quarter will be given. The over and under total goals quotes are, as ever, informative as to how the oddsmakers see the game playing out. Both sides feature some very efficient goalscorers and with this in mind, 21 attempts at goal allows us to rationalise a price of 8/11 on the over 2.5 goals market. Using the same logic 2/9 and 2-1 would justify the over 1.5 and over 3.5 goals quotes respectively. There are significant discrepancies in the bookmaker prices particularly in the over 3.5 goals market where quotes range from 13-8 to a more realistic 2-1. In fact, the 1/4 about over 1.5 goals is the fairest of the prices available.

A popular special on this fixture is a bet for both Ronaldo and Messi to score. Assuming that they have similar goal conversion rates, if they were to be presented with three genuine scoring opportunities each, 6-1 would be a fair price. There would need to be an extra attempt from one of them to justify a quote of below 5-1. An uneven distribution of chances pushes the real price higher and makes for a less attractive proposition.

Cesc Fabregas catches the eye in the ‘anytime scorer’ market at greater than 4.1. He essentially needs two viable chances to score during the game to make the bet reasonable value. He’s probable around 2-1 to score from three attempts. The proviso of course is that he makes the starting eleven and plays for the majority of the game.

Recommended bets:

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.
Cesc Fabregas to score anytime at better than 4.1 (Providing he starts the game).

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