Archive for month: February, 2013

Saturday horseracing : Ascot 3:15

16 Feb
February 16, 2013

Horseracing Markets

Back Whitby Jack (EW) @7-1

Whitby Jack finds himself at the right end of the weights in this traditionally strong handicap. While he was never probably under serious consideration for taking up his entry in last Saturday’s ultra competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but the fact that someone thought he was worth an entry indicates that he still retains a fair degree of progression. He was a decisive winner at Kempton last month and is clearly at home on a right handed track. At 7-1 it is worth finding out whether he can be competitive in this higher grade but the fact that he hails from a stable more than capable of lifting big Saturday handicap hurdles, he is worth the benefit of the doubt.

Premier League betting : February 9th.

08 Feb
February 8, 2013

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

Player Markets

Back Bale to be first goal scorer vs. Newcastle (EW) @11-2

Bale is clearly Tottenham’s most likely source of goals at present given Defoe’s injury and Adebeyor’s late arrival back from the African Cup of Nations. Bale is regularly firing off more than 4 shots a game and against Newcastle he is likely to see enough of the ball due to his positional versatility. Considering that he has scored in more than 40 % of the league games in which he has played, the each way part of the bet, at odds of 1.8-1, is at least a fair prospect.

Southampton vs. Manchester City

Stats Markets

LAY Manchester City to win to nil vs. Southampton @2-1

City continue to stutter and were lucky to take something from a game in which Liverpool dominated for large parts last Sunday. City’s great strength last season was scoring 3 goals in a game which was usually enough to put a contest to bed. This term they have not scored enough goals consistently and as result teams feel as if they can take points off last season’s champions. Southampton have been much improved in recent weeks. In fact, in the league, the Saints have lost to nil on only 4 occasions. City might well over power the home side over the ninety minutes but it is unlikely that they will be fast starters seeing as many of their players will be returning from international duty. Southampton, and in particular, Lambert are likely to score but deep into the game they may be satisfied with taking a point from a 0-0 draw.

Newbury / Leopardstown : February 9th.

08 Feb
February 8, 2013

Horseracing Markets

Back Waaheb (EW) @3-1 Leopardstown 2:15

Rock Critic was a good winner for the selection’s stable at Fairyhouse on Tuesday and it was remarkable how mute the post race reaction was. Part of the explanation could be that Waaheb has been waiting in the wings and that this former top bumper performer carries the yard’s principle Cheltenham aspirations. Drying ground will greatly aid his cause where he will be able to use his speed against the one paced Champagne Fever. The latter is posted as favourite but it feels as if his position at the head of the market is by default. The upside is that Waaheb is virtually an each way bet to nothing with convincing prospects of winning the race.

Back Cotton Mill (EW) @8-1 Newbury 3:35

Cotton Mill has been tipped up in some quarters as a potential Champion Hurdle horse. It is hard to argue that he potentially still doesn’t have a progressive profile. Racing off tomorrow’s handicap mark and weight he has to make an impression on this race if he is to feature at the business end of Cheltenham’s feature hurdle. As the winner of a ten furlong maiden on the flat he is likely to have the pace to cope with tomorrow’s assignment and the fact he doesn’t have form over the minimum trip probably adds a point or two to his price. Doubts may surface over his preparedness seeing as he is yet to race this season but there have been plenty of possible alternative engagements where he could have had a much easier race in a small runner field. Instead, it is likely that he is pretty well tuned up heading into this tough handicap and a good account is expected.

Betting Performance Update

05 Feb
February 5, 2013

Overall Statistics for 2013 up to February 4th.

16 selections posted, 6 winners, 3 places.
68.6% R.O.I. where 1 point bet to win and 0.5 points bet each way on selections.

Our aim is to see a return of capital on at least 50 % of occasions from a bet, something we have been close to achieving over the past 13 months and have demonstrated in the early part of this year. Our selections have been across a wide range of prices and we have been equally adept at finding good priced winners as well as the shorter priced ones. Objectivity is at the forefront of our selection methods and this is the mindset with which we are aiming to proceed.

So how does our approach help our readers?

By making a few statistical assumptions and considering our ‘average’ performance, we have come up with the following guidelines. Given that on a typical day we post 3 selections of which on average 1.5 will return money we can estimate the odds of the various levels of success.

We are around a 4-1 shot to give 3 selections that pay out and slightly lower odds, at around 7-2, to give none at all from any typical posting. 2 or more cash returns is rated as a 5-4 shot, while 1 or more is 2/7.

In summary, over the past year or so our method has proven to be good enough to be odds on to give readers at least a run for their money with each posting and the longer priced winners have ensured that money has been made over this time.

Premier League betting : February 2nd

01 Feb
February 1, 2013

Everton vs. Aston Villa

Player Markets

Back Fellaini to be first goal scorer (EW) @11-2

Fellaini is likely to prove to be more than a handful for a lacklustre Villa team who continue to find themselves on the slide. Fellaini’s form arguably was better earlier in the campaign but it is hard to imagine that he will not have at least 3 or 4 very decent opportunities to score in this game. He has a very respectable goal chance conversion rate, including with headed attempts. Villa have struggled at defending set pieces and it’s hard to believe that the Belgian will not be one of Baines’ principle targets from dead ball situations. The price makes him an odds against chance to score at anytime thus making the each way part of the bet attractive. Seeing as so much of Everton’s play is channelled down the left flank he is likely to see a decent opportunity come his way early in the game.

Arsenal vs. Stoke City

Player Markets

Back Walcott to be first goal scorer (EW) @4-1

Stats Markets

Back the second half for half with most goals @Evens

This match-up is very much a contrast in styles and the approaches of both sides have their merits. Arsenal continue to place great emphasis on the attacking side of their game but on this occasion it would not be a surprise to see them exercise a little restraint going forward in an attempt to lure Stoke out of their defensive formation. The home side have made hard work for themselves in recent weeks by giving up starts and then staging tremendous rallies in order to get back into games. It will be evident that Stoke can only really hurt Arsenal from set piece situations and the best method of preventing Stoke from delivering dangerous free kicks into the home side’s area is to avoid turning over the ball. Stoke for their part will be happy to soak up early Arsenal pressure and any high balls into Giroud are unlikely to prove to be effective. But most importantly Arsenal will look to avoid giving up the first goal. The pace of Walcott and Podolski is the facet of Arsenal’s attacking line that will give Stoke most concern and these two strikers will look continually to get in behind the last Stoke defender. Walcott has been in such good form of late that he is hard to ignore in the goal scoring markets and warrants a betting interest.

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