Archive for month: December, 2012

Premier League betting : December 29th

29 Dec
December 29, 2012

Aston Villa vs. Wigan

Player Markets

Back Kone to be first goalscorer (EW) @8-1

Villa are clearly in disarray. While there is little insight to be gained from stating the obvious it is worth pointing out that that their injury list is catastrophic. Paul Lambert will do well to salvage what little confidence his young team has left after two successive maulings at the hands of Chelsea and Tottenham. Wigan are in not much better shape but they can be at least fancied to score at Villa Park this afternoon. Kone has managed to score 5 times in the league thus far and remains Wigan’s most likely route to goal. He was perhaps a little unlucky against Arsenal before Christmas and the way he hangs on the shoulder of the last defender makes him an ever present threat. It can be recalled that he also gave Tottenham a torrid time in the game Wigan won at White Hart Lane. His conversion rate of 1 in 10 is par for the division and Wigan are likely to muster close to their season average of 12 attempts at goal this afternoon.

Fulham vs. Swansea

Game Markets

Back Under 2.5 goals @5-6

Player Markets

Back Senderos to be first goalscorer (EW) @40-1

Both teams approach this game winless in their last three games, with goalscoring being an issue for both sides in that period. The injury to Michu will naturally be of great concern to Swansea. Despite Laudrup’s assertation that they are not a one man side, the Spaniard is responsible for almost half of their league goals this season. With both sides happy to keep possession in their own half, it is reasonable to expect a slow burning affair with few goals. Where opportunities could arise are in set piece situations. Senderos’ reintroduction to the side and consequential aerial presence could be key to this. The each way part of the first goalscorer bet still pays handsomely and is worth some attention.

Manchester United vs. West Brom

Game Markets

Back Over 3.5 goals @11-10

Player Markets

Back Van Persie to be first goalscorer (EW) @3-1

Manchester United face a WBA side that has returned to form following a string of three defeats. Both teams will need to reshuffle at the back; West Brom due to an injury to key defender Jonas Olsson and United as a result of their poor defensive display against Newcastle. From the home and away tables this season it is clear to see that The Baggies remain strongest at home. Away from The Hawthorns they concede an average of 18 goal attempts per game. Considering United are averaging less than 6 attempts per goal at home this season, the potential for scoring at Old Trafford today is high. The epitome of this clinical finishing is no doubt in the form of Van Persie and again the each way part of the first goalscorer bet pays greater than the corresponding anytime price. At the other end, the aforementioned reshuffle in United’s defence could lead to chances for the away side and cement value in the goal market price.

Arsenal vs. Newcastle

Player markets

Back Walcott to be first goalscorer (EW) @5-1

Game Stats Markets

Back Over 3 match cards @8-5

Arsenal will be at full strength for the visit of an injury ravaged Newcastle side and will be far fresher having not played in midweek. Walcott will hope to resume his preferred position at the head of The Gunners’ attack and his pace could be potentially damaging to any tired legs in the Magpies’ defence. This fixture has a history of high card counts with little love lost between the two sides. Today’s fixture is likely to follow the same pattern with genuine pace at either end and tiredness adding credence to the card market bet. It could prove to be a busy day for referee Chris Foy who has already shown 5 yellow cards in a previous Newcastle league fixture this season.

December 26th betting : Sports multiple

24 Dec
December 24, 2012

Back Blood Cotil 1:20 Leopardstown @6-4, Arvika Ligeonniere 2:55 Leopardstown @5-6, Barcelona Champions’ League Outright @9-4 in 3 doubles and a treble.

The above proposed multiple will provide a very decent chance of holding a useful ante post voucher heading into the Champions’ League knock out stages early next year.

Leopardstown hosts top class racing on December 26th and it will probably pay to concentrate on the graded contests. Blood Cotil is the selection in the 1:20 following an impressive debut at Fairyhouse last month. On paper this isn’t a particularly strong contest and he receives weight from his main market rival. The same owner, trainer and jockey combination will look to double up in the 2:55 with Arvika Ligeonniere. His average winning distance from his last 3 runs stands at around 10 lengths. It is arguable that he was the best horse in the grade 1 Drinmore irrespective of the fact that he stole a march on his rivals at the start. He kept galloping all the same and similar tactics are likely to be employed here. Arvika Ligeonniere’s connections put Oscars Well’s jumping to the test at Punchestown by sending Twinlight to the lead and the result was that today’s second favourite fell at the second fence.

Barcelona have enjoyed a record breaking start to the campaign and for a team of their calibre this season’s renewal of the Champions’ League must be one of the easiest to win for a while. Real Madrid remain as second favourites but surely only by default. It could be said that this competition is their main focus but it is hard to leave behind the poor habits that blights their La Liga bid and play like a different team in midweek. Barcelona addressed some of their attacking shortcomings during close season by acquiring a genuine attacking left full back in Jordi Alba. Pedro has also rediscovered some of his decent form of two seasons ago. All in all Barcelona represent a more formidable force than they did a season ago.

The prices may be short for each leg of the proposed multiple bet but this blog has produced a strike rate of around 50 % thus far. Therefore for three typical selections we are a 5-1 shot to deliver a winning treble. A winning trixie in this case pays at overall odds of better than 7-1 and thus is a viable proposition.

Premier League betting : December 22nd

21 Dec
December 21, 2012

Manchester City vs. Reading

Game Markets

Back the 2nd half as the half with most goals @Evens

City bounced back after their derby disappointment with an ultimately convincing win at Newcastle last weekend. They rediscovered the ability to score 3 goals in a game which was probably crucial during the later stages of the contest, as Newcastle were applying significant pressure at 2-1. City are overwhelming favourites for this weekend’s fixture despite not being at their best and there are a number of scenarios as to how the game will pan out. Reading will aim to frustrate their hosts in the first half and will look to limit the early damage. City will probe, looking for openings and as is their style they will increase the pressure in the second half. The chances are, their pressure will tell in terms of goals late on. Alternatively, it is hard seeing Reading being able to contain City if the home side gain an early advantage. Reading have been prone to collapse against the type of pressure that City are capable of applying. City have a raft of attacking players who can be thrown into the fray in order to take advantage of a suffering foe. The memory of winning the league on goal difference will still be fresh in the management’s mind and an opportunity to maximise their advantage will not be turned down.

Tottenham vs. Stoke

Player Markets

Back Defoe to be first goal scorer (EW) @9/2

Defoe remains in decent form and while his side have been sporadic in their productivity, they find themselves 4th in the table. Away from home Stoke offer a limited threat in front of goal so the onus will be on Spurs to make the running. They showed reasonable patience against a stubborn Swansea side before making the breakthrough in the second half. Tottenham are worthy favourites for this contest and it follows that Defoe is the player most likely to break the deadlock. He continues to shoot frequently at goal, clearly with the permission of the coaching staff and his elusiveness will cause the Stoke defence problems. As is often the case the each way part of the first goal scorer bet offers better value than the ‘to score anytime’ wager, particularly as Defoe is unlikely to score the sixth goal of the game.

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Game Markets

Back over 2.5 goals @4-6

Neither side has looked watertight at the back in recent weeks and a clean sheet would be seen as a welcome bonus for the winners of this tie. Liverpool lead the division in goal attempts but are yet to receive the expected output from their efforts. Suarez could well have needed the outing against Villa following his suspension and will be sharper for the experience. Eventually some of what Liverpool are throwing has to stick and they are certainly going forward with an attacking outlook. Johnson and Enrique are being deployed further up the field than was once the case. Fulham have their own attacking attributes but since the injury to Ruiz their momentum has slowed. If Liverpool can conjure up an early goal, this contest could really open up and a total of 3 goals being scored may prove to be a conservative estimate. It is hard to imagine that Fulham will arrive with an overly defensive gameplan and it’ll be interesting to see how they cope without the ball for significant periods. Both sides have the quality in front of goal to ensure that a stalemate is unlikely.

Premier League betting : December 15th

15 Dec
December 15, 2012

Manchester United vs. Sunderland

Game Markets

Back ‘Any other correct score’ @5-2

Manchester United have scored an average of 2.75 goals a game against opposition from the lower half of the division this season. Indeed, United have proven to be prolific in front of goal throughout the campaign. It remains a surprise that they are yet to score 5 goals in a single league game and it can only be by chance that this eventuality has not occurred. In other words, for a team with such impressive goal scoring stats they could have been expected to log at least one single high score this term. For the purposes of today’s wager United are only required to score 4 goals, a feat that they have accomplished 3 times already this term. This should be well within their compass seeing as they have the potential to inflict a much more devastating defeat on one of the division’s lower ranked teams.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Player Markets

Back Suarez to be first goal scorer (EW) @3-1

Suarez returns refreshed following an enforced absence to lead the line against Villa. His confidence appears to have grown since last season because he is evidently finishing off a greater proportion of his goal scoring opportunities this time around. It remains noticeable that he attempts a great many number of shots throughout a game and clearly has not been discouraged from this practice seeing as this term’s figures are similar to last season’s. Liverpool have adopted the tactic of pressing forward with their wingbacks which will enable Suarez to spend a greater proportion of his time in central areas. In contrast, last season he was often seen pulling out to the left flank to initiate attacks whilst vacating the centre in favour of Carroll. He is certainly a fair proposition at evens to score one of the first 5 goals and is very much the most likely individual on the field to break the deadlock first.

Stoke vs. Everton

Game Markets

Back Everton, draw no bet @8-11

Everton have seemed to be content to bombard teams this season as compared with last. They are hugely in the positive when it comes to the difference between shots they’ve had at the opposition’s goal and those that they have conceded. A respectable 27 goals scored suggests that their efforts have been far from unfocused and in contrast Stoke have only been able to muster a total of 14 goals thus far. The Potters remain one of the more shot shy teams in the division and should Everton score it will take a huge effort for the home side to find the net twice. Furthermore, Everton appear to be particularly resilient should they find themselves behind in a game and victory for Stoke today would probably represent one of their strongest pieces of form of the season to date.

Cup Football betting : December 12th

12 Dec
December 12, 2012

Swansea vs. Middlesboro

Game Markets

Back Swansea @4-6

Swansea have been highly competitive in the Premier League this season and fully warrant their position in the table based on their play. Their situation compared to that of West Brom’s makes interesting reading. West Brom find themselves 3 points ahead of Swansea yet have scored 2 less goals. Both sides have conceded the same number of goals. What is revealing is that Swansea have both produced and conceded an average of 14 shots at goal per game during their league campaign. In contrast, West Brom have had an average of 12 shots at their opponents’ goal but have had to absorb, on average, 16 efforts per game. In conclusion, Swansea are worthy of at least their position of 8th in the table despite a change in management in the Summer. As a consequence 4-6 about them beating a Championship team in this cup tie is at least fair. Their setback against Norwich on the weekend will serve as a timely reminder that each game has to be taken on its own merits.

Cordoba vs. Barcelona

Game Markets

Back Barcelona ‘MINUS Messi’s goals’ @Evens

Barcelona had to fight hard to see off a determined Betis side on the weekend and this was another reminder to an in-form side that each game starts at 0-0 and that reputation doesn’t give you a goal head start. Barcelona are chalked up as short priced favourites to win this game in the ninety minutes against a lower division side that hasn’t won in 6 games. Messi is the most likely source of goals in this contest but despite his massive contribution to Barcelona’s league campaign, his side would have still won 9 of their 15 encounters if his goals are subtracted from the final scores. Evens is an attractive proposition about Barcelona winning this tie comfortably with an all round team performance.

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