Archive for month: October, 2012

Champions League betting : October 23rd

23 Oct
October 23, 2012

Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Chelsea

Player Markets

Back Mkhitaryan to be first goalscorer (EW) @13-2

Both teams come into this match knowing that a victory will go a long way towards securing qualification from Group E. The feeling is that Chelsea would rather pick up something here than rely on a result at Juventus. If Chelsea fail to pay Shakhtar the respect that they afford their more illustrious Champions League opponents, they could pay the price against their Ukrainian counterparts. Donetsk represent an in-form team who have had a day extra rest without the issues of travel. They operate well on the counter attack and in Mkhitaryan, have a goalscorer capable of causing problems between Chelsea’s defensive lines. The each way part of the bet pays better than 2-1 and as such yields anytime value.

Manchester United vs. Braga

Player Markets

Back Rooney anytime goalscorer @11-10

United will aim to have qualification all but secured in their second home match of this campaign. Braga may be encouraged by changes to the Red Devils’ back line but it is at the other end where United will look to maintain pressure. In previous games this season Braga have looked vulnerable to players playing off the main striker. Wayne Rooney appears to have returned to form and has registered five goals in his last three games for both club and country. Operating in this role he should still gain sufficient opportunities to make the scoresheet and is backable at the price available.

Premier League betting : October 20th

20 Oct
October 20, 2012

Fulham vs. Aston Villa

Player Markets

Back Berbatov to be first goalscorer (EW) @5-1

Fulham’s principle goal threat is due to return from injury for the home clash against Aston Villa. Berbatov has already shown glimpses of form this season that suggests he still has a lot to offer at the top level. For the purposes of assessing today’s prospect, 5-1 to open the scoring, it is assumed that he is still capable of scoring 17 goals throughout a 34 game season. It is most likely that he will find the net during 13 of the those 34 games. The bookmakers are clearly thinking along the same lines seeing as the each way part of the bet pays better than 13-8 and at least half of the bet is a fair offer.

West Ham vs. Southampton

Game Markets

Back Over 2.5 goals West Ham vs. Southampton @4-6

The overall average goals per game in the Premier League this season is around 3. This is a slight rise on last term’s average of 2.81. Clearly teams are having little difficulty in attacking but are being found wanting at the back. Both West Ham and Southampton have significant target men in their front lines and built much of their attacks around their number 9s. But they also have other attacking options, particularly Southampton. Neither side will settle for a point from this encounter and added to the fact that it is unlikely that either side is dominant enough to completely control the game, this is likely to be end to end stuff.

Norwich City vs. Arsenal

Player Markets

Back Podolski to be first goalscorer (EW) @5-1

Norwich have not shown improved form compared to that of last season while Arsenal look as if they will at least maintain their position amongst the elite teams. Podolski was always likely to be an excellent acquisition for the Gunners given his proven goalscoring record and wealth of experience. Norwich will try and have to make something of the game and press forward, at least on occasions. Arsenal on the break are as devastating as ever and their opening goal against Liverpool showed what they were all about. Carzola has been consistently effective and will have little difficulty in finding his forwards on the counterattack. As with Berbatov in the above wager, it is assumed that Podolski is capable of a 17 goal season. Today he lines out against what is effectively bottom four opposition and chances will come his way.

Premier League Antepost betting : October 20th

20 Oct
October 20, 2012

Outright Markets

Back Tottenham to win the Premier League @50-1

Saturday’s lunchtime kick off is one of the key fixtures of the early part of this term. This match-up is often one of the highlights of the season given the style with which both sides traditionally approach the game, but this time around there is the added intrigue of Andre Villas-Boas’ face-off with his former employers. All this is common knowledge so why is there such interest from a numbers point of view?

Tottenham appear to have turned their season around from an opening day defeat at Newcastle and an abject display at home to Norwich. Friedel was a worthy man of the match in the later fixture and for good reason. Following September’s international break Spurs have won 4 on the bounce with the undoubted highlight a rare victory at Old Trafford. They line up against Chelsea seeking a fifth straight victory. Intuitively this doesn’t sound or feel like a particularly noteworthy achievement for a squad of international players at the peak of their powers. Put into perspective, such is the level of competition in the Premier League that it is typical for the 5th placed team to win less than half of their games throughout the season. Newcastle did exceptionally well last season to win 19 games seeing as 16 and 18 victories respectively were recorded by the first team to finish outside of the Champions’ League spots in the previous two seasons.

So, let us assume that this season’s 5th placed team will again win 50 % of their games. For this typical 5th placed team to win 5 times on the trot in the league they would rate as 31-1 shots to perform the feat. In other words they would be performing atypically for a 5th placed team and may in fact actually be a top 4 outfit. While the quirks of the fixture list can allow a team to have an easy run of games this is not a situation that has developed for Spurs during this period of improvement. A visit to Old Trafford and a home fixture against Chelsea would be considered to be some of the toughest fixtures in the calendar. Indeed, the cumulative bookmaker odds for Tottenham to put this run of 5 wins together would be greater than 25-1.

Chelsea themselves could also post a statistically significant effort by winning the White Hart Lane encounter. Their own record would improve to 7 wins from the opening 8 games. For a typical 5th place team to post this level of return would also be a 31-1 occurrence. With away wins at Arsenal and Tottenham it would be hard to describe the early Chelsea schedule as lightweight and victory on Saturday would all but confirm The Blues return to Top 4 status.

As things stand before kick-off the widespread expectation is that Chelsea will be challenging for the title. They are priced up at only 3-1 to lift the trophy in May. In contrast, Tottenham are as long as 50-1 to be crowned champions. It is worth remembering that Spurs put together a hugely impressive run last Autumn that incorporated 10 wins from 11 games. As a result their title odds plunged to a single figure price. A similar situation this time around would provide a decent trading out option and considering that they are without a Champions’ League commitment, at 50-1 they are probably worth a speculative punt.

Premier League Betting : October 6th

05 Oct
October 5, 2012

West Brom vs. Q.P.R.

Player Markets

Back Jonas Olsson anytime goalscorer @12-1

Back McAuley anytime goalscorer @9-1

Q.P.R. still clearly have defensive issues to address, particularly with regards to the crossed ball. West Ham were able to exploit this weakness on Monday night and despite having the majority of the possession Rangers still ended up with nothing from the game. McAULEY has already found the target this season and represents an ever present threat from corners and set pieces. There has not been a game yet this season where he or his central defensive partner, OLSSON, between them have not registered an effort on target. It is easy to imagine that at least one of them will have a clear sight of goal at some stage on Saturday.

Game Markets

Back West Brom @10-11

WEST BROM remain in good form and played well away at Villa last Sunday. They are worth backing at a shade of odds on considering that they have already beaten Everton at Liverpool this season at The Hawthorns. Long and Lukaku have shown menace upfront in scoring 4 goals in the league between them and there is the potential that there is more to come. Added to the set piece threats available it will be disappointing if The Baggies don’t add to their number of home wins for this season.

Manchester City vs. Sunderland

Game Stats Markets

Back Manchester City to score the game’s 3rd goal @10-11

City appear to be making hard work of their efforts to retain the Premier League title and to advance in Europe. They remain very difficult to beat all the same, and it is a rarity that they don’t finish the game strongly. In contrast, Sunderland give the impression that they fade towards the end of the ninety minutes. Against Liverpool at The Stadium of Light, there was an air of desperation late on in the game where hoofing the ball to safety was the sole consideration as the home side hung on for a point. The numbers appear to confirm the impression. Sunderland have fashioned an aggregate of 6 shots at goal after the 75th minute in their opening 5 games. The opposition have had a sight of the Sunderland goal a total of 15 times, 11 of which have been from inside the penalty area. What makes these numbers all the more disappointing is that on two occasions the opposition had been reduced to 10 men. If City make it to the last ten minutes with their goal intact, they’ll have a great opportunity to collect their first clean sheet. Sunderland can be expected to be competitive for the first half and have the potential to take the lead but it will be City that are likely to be making the late running.

Chelsea vs. Norwich

Player Markets

Back Torres to be first goalscorer (EW) @3-1

TORRES is clearly showing the benefit of being his side’s undisputed choice to lead the attack. 3 goals from the opening 6 games is a fair return and he is beginning to show the form that will lead to a 20 goals plus season. With this in mind he is likely to score in around half of his appearances. The place part of the each way first goalscorer bet pays even money and Norwich are not proving to be particularly robust opponents this term.

Horseracing Betting : October 6th

05 Oct
October 5, 2012

Horseracing Markets

Back Angels Will Fall (EW) @9-1

Newmarket’s 5 o’clock sees the reappearance of ANGELS WILL FALL in a listed race over 6 furlongs. She competed in arguably a stronger race at Newbury and failed to get any type of run in the latter stages. She travelled well enough over the sharp 5 furlongs and over this trip will have a fraction longer to get herself organised. She has run creditably at a higher level and in this grade is very likely to be competitive.

Back Regal Parade (EW) @12-1

The day’s big handicap at Ascot (3:35) sees the protagonists from the Ayr Gold Cup return to action. CAPTAIN RAMIUS was clearly well handicapped at Ayr and now carries a 6 pounds penalty while the mark of REGAL PARADE remains untouched. The later has very decent place claims off his rating and two years ago he ran close in the group 1 Prix de La Foret on this very weekend. At 6 years of age he was too old even back then!

Lay Cirrus des Aigles @5-4

There are reasons to oppose the market leader in the Prix Dollar (Longchamp 1:00). The fabulous CIRRUS DES AIGLES is always so much better after a recent outing and here he has to contend with a 132 day absence, along with a 6 pounds penalty. MAXIOS made hard work of victory last time out but he may have found the track a little sharp and the softer conditions will bring his stamina into play. HUNTER’S LIGHT would have been the selection had he not already triumphed at this level last time out. He is burdened with an extra 4 pounds but it is no harm to have him running for us.

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